Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Maize Production in Tanzania: Time Series Analysis
Date
2023-06Author
Moshi, Abel F.
Nestory, Maguja Y.
Mlilile, Bernard B.
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Maize is an important food and income earner for rural and urban dwellers in Tanzania.
Despite efforts done by the government and private sector, the yield of maize has remained
significantly below the average of less than 2 metric tonnes per hectare. This threatens food
insecurity and poverty for rural people. This study analyses the economic factors affecting
maize production in Tanzania for a period of 61 years. Time series data on aggregate maize
production, fertilizer price, total area under maize cultivation, the total seed used, expected
price of maize and average annual rainfall for the period 1961-2020 were analyzed using a
vector error correction model. Empirical findings revealed that the total area under maize
cultivation, the total seed used and average annual rainfall have a positive relationship with
aggregate maize production; but fertilizer price and expected price of maize have a negative
relationship with aggregate maize production. In terms of statistical significance, the study
found that the area cultivated was statistically significant; but seed used, price of fertilizer,
expected price of maize and average annual rainfall were statistically insignificant. The
study recommends formulation of policies about intensive agriculture, fertilizer and seed
subsidization and irrigation schemes to increase productivity.